
An illustration of the concepts of local maximum and global maximum. Some enterprise decision making entails choosing strategies that optimize specific organizational attributes, such as the cost of production, or revenue. Optimization, generically, is the search for a maximum with respect to certain parameters. A local maximum is a maximum in a localized region, which is not the maximum of a more global region. Viewed as "summits" local maxima are false, in the sense that they do not represent the "best" value obtainable over the entire parameter space. Discovering that a strategy has led the enterprise to a local, but not a global, optimization, can be just as debilitating as the false summits described here.
Image courtesy SoSailAway.
We began an exploration of the value of the false summit metaphor last time, focusing on reducing the probability of surprise in projects by gathering intelligence in advance. That does help, but because false summit surprises can still happen, we can increase our chances of success by preparing for them. Here are some tips for preparing project teams and management teams — and the attitudes of the people involved — so that when false summits occur, we can better take them in stride.
- Accept that mountains have false summits
- When you set out to climb a mountain, you'll be better prepared for false summits if you accept the fact that some mountains have false summits — and maybe this one does. When you look ahead and see what looks like the summit, remember that it might not be.
- Because projects are inherently risky, it's unreasonable to expect or demand rigid adherence to budgets and schedules. Reserves are essential, because there are always — always — unknowns. Budgeting and scheduling as if there were no unknowns is naïve, if not unethical or criminal. This applies at every time scale. For example, allocating resources across multiple projects with the assumption that everything will be completed as projected is unrealistic. But scheduling meetings back-to-back all day long is also unrealistic. We need slack at all time scales to enable us to deal with the unexpected.
- Manage expectations
- In climbing, assuming that no false summits remain, or that "it's easy from this point on," exposes the party to the risk of disappointment. Climbing is an adventure. The unexpected can always arrive.
- In project work, where it can be unusual for even a single day to go as planned, we nonetheless cling to the attitude that when the unexpected does happen, something has "gone wrong." Usually, nothing has gone wrong. That's just the way things are when we On the mountain, when undesirable
situations develop, we must have
the psychological reserves necessary
to cope effectivelywork on projects. The occurrence of unexpected events is not in itself an indicator of substandard performance on anyone's part. Rather, it is an indicator that the organization is engaged in project work, and typically, nothing more. On the other hand, stretching resources — or over-committing the organization — so severely that people are unable to deal with unexpected events is an indicator of substandard performance. - Manage stress
- On the mountain, when undesirable situations develop, we must have the psychological reserves necessary to cope effectively. Pushing people to their limits exposes the entire party to unmanageable risks.
- When project team members, leaders, managers, or sponsors experience elevated levels of stress day after day, for months or years, one disappointment can be enough to trigger behaviors that threaten not only the success of the project, but also the organization's ability to execute future projects. Manage stress. Operating too lean and too mean is too dumb.
Well, we've reached the end of this discussion — the summit. Really. First issue in this series
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Related articles
More articles on Project Management:
The Tweaking CC
- When did you last receive an email message with a "tweaking CC"? Probably yesterday. A tweaking
CC is usually a CC to your boss or possibly the entire known universe, designed to create pressure by
exposing embarrassing information.
Long-Loop Conversations: Asking Questions
- In virtual or global teams, where remote collaboration is the rule, waiting for the answer to a simple
question can take a day or more. And when the response finally arrives, it's often just another question.
Here are some suggestions for framing questions that are clear enough to get answers quickly.
Heart with Mind
- We say people have "heart" when they continue to pursue a goal despite obstacles that would
discourage almost everyone. We say that people are stubborn when they continue to pursue a goal that
we regard as unachievable. What are our choices when achieving the goal is difficult?
Cost Concerns: Comparisons
- When we assess the costs of different options for solving a problem, we must take care not to commit
a variety of errors in approach. These errors can lead to flawed decisions. One activity at risk for
error is comparing the costs of two options.
Defect Streams and Their Sources
- Regarding defects as elements of a stream provides a perspective that aids in identifying causes other
than negligence. Examples of root causes are unfunded mandates, misallocation of the cost of procedure
competence, and frequent changes in procedures.
See also Project Management and Project Management for more related articles.
Forthcoming issues of Point Lookout
Coming February 26: Devious Political Tactics: Bad Decisions
- When workplace politics influences the exchanges that lead to important organizational decisions, we sometimes make decisions for reasons other than the best interests of the organization. Recognizing these tactics can limit the risk of bad decisions. Available here and by RSS on February 26.
And on March 5: On Begging the Question
- Some of our most expensive wrong decisions have come about because we've tricked ourselves as we debated our options. The tricks sometimes arise from rhetorical fallacies that tangle our thinking. One of the trickiest is called Begging the Question. Available here and by RSS on March 5.
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