Point Lookout: a free weekly publication of Chaco Canyon Consulting
Volume 2, Issue 25;   June 19, 2002:

by

When projects founder, we're often shocked — we thought everything was moving along smoothly. Sometimes, with the benefit of hindsight, we can see that we had — or could have had — enough information to determine that trouble was ahead. Somehow it was obscured by fog. How can we get better at seeing through the fog?

Mort now understood why Ginny had wanted to meet off-site. "I'm worried," she was saying, "Dave always seems to be overloaded. Even back in March, when things were going smoothly on both our projects. So I thought I'd check with you."

"Hmm. I've been getting the same story," Mort replied. "He keeps saying that work on other projects is making him miss his dates."

Mountain fogMort and Ginny then talked with Sid, the lead on Dave's third project team. Sid told them that he'd heard the same thing from Dave, too. Once all three of them — Mort, Ginny, and Sid — pooled their information, they knew they needed help from HR. That way they could possibly save all three projects, and the career of a bright but troubled employee.

By working together, and being open with each other, Mort, Ginny, and Sid combined what they knew. The information each one had wasn't enough in itself to tell any one of them what to do, but combined, they were able to choose an effective management intervention. By fusing together all they knew, they could see the real problem through the fog.

To see through the fog that hides the rocks, you sometimes need information from outside your project. Here are a few tips for seeing through the fog.

To see through the
fog, you sometimes need
information from
outside it
Share what you know with other project managers
Compare issues lists from several projects, looking for patterns and commonalities. Compare schedules to look ahead for contention for people or resources. Talk to other customers of suppliers or subcontractors, both within your organization and outside it if you can.
Learn from history
If you suspect a problem might be looming, interview past project managers who've worked with the people or subcontractor that might be at issue.
Use cluster analysis
Search defect reports and schedule slips to find clusters of problems. When you find a cluster around a single component, consider restarting that component from scratch, possibly with a different team. Look carefully at other components that were built the same way, possibly on other projects.
Be uniformly skeptical
Components that were built by people who are well regarded sometimes escape early rigorous testing because of favorable bias. Examine all test plans for bias and make sure that all components are treated equally skeptically.

Projects are usually in one of four states: not yet begun, finished, in crisis, and about to be in crisis. The only transition that happens unexpectedly is from about-to-be-in-crisis to crisis. By learning to see through the fog, you can make that transition a little more gracefully, and a lot less often. Go to top Top  Next issue: Think in Living Color  Next Issue

Rick BrennerThe article you've been reading is an archived issue of Point Lookout, my weekly newsletter. I've been publishing it since January, 2001, free to all subscribers, over the Web, and via RSS. You can help keep it free by donating either as an individual or as an organization. You'll receive in return my sincere thanks — and the comfort of knowing that you've helped to propagate insights and perspectives that can help make our workplaces a little more human-friendly. More

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If you're feeling overwhelmed by all the items on your To-Do list, and if you start on one only to realize that you have to tackle three more you didn't know about before you can finish that one, you could be experiencing the Zebra Effect.
A glass of red wineI've Been Right All Along
As people, we're very good at forming and holding beliefs and opinions despite nagging doubts. These doubts lead us to search for confirmation of our beliefs, and to reject information that might conflict with our beliefs. Often, this process causes us to persist in believing nonsense. How can we tell when this is happening?
The field of vision of a horseA Review of Performance Reviews: Blindsiding
Ever learn of a complaint about you for the first time at your performance review? If so, you were blindsided. Reviews can be painful. Here are some guidelines for making them a little fairer.
A pyramidal silk teabag of spiced black teaPatching Up the Cracks
When things repeatedly "fall through the cracks," we're not doing the best we can. How can we deal with the problem of repeatedly failing to do what we need to do? How can we patch up the cracks?
Adolf Hitler, dictator of Germany and leader of the Nazi party 1934-1945Confirmation Bias and Myside Bias
Although we regard ourselves as rational, a well-established body of knowledge shows that rationality plays a less-than-central role in our decision-making process. Confirmation Bias and Myside Bias are two cognitive biases that influence our decisions.

See also Emotions at Work and Emotions at Work for more related articles.

Forthcoming issues of Point Lookout

A Crusader tank with its 'sunshield' lorry camouflage erected 26 October 1942Coming February 26: Devious Political Tactics: Bad Decisions
When workplace politics influences the exchanges that lead to important organizational decisions, we sometimes make decisions for reasons other than the best interests of the organization. Recognizing these tactics can limit the risk of bad decisions. Available here and by RSS on February 26.
A human shaking hands with an androidAnd on March 5: On Begging the Question
Some of our most expensive wrong decisions have come about because we've tricked ourselves as we debated our options. The tricks sometimes arise from rhetorical fallacies that tangle our thinking. One of the trickiest is called Begging the Question. Available here and by RSS on March 5.

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